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A Word on 2012 and Beyond

If you think the big story of the Presidential election season was the relative lack of change in power – Democrats retained the White House and the Senate and Republicans held the House – then you’re not into extrapolating statistics and trends. Thankfully for you, we are, and, with that, we will make the following blanket contention: the shift in American political trends that began in 2008 and continued in 2012 will shape the future of our country dramatically over the next several generations.

It would be easy to say that this shift is strictly limited to demographics as James Carville posited a few days after the election, as well as in his 2009 book, 40 More Years, co-authored with Rebecca Buckwalter-Poza. But we think there’s a greater confluence of variables at work here of which demography is but one.

To consider the electorate (and the election) of 2012 as merely a shifting of races and voting blocs fails to take into account the real and meaningful impact of both cultural and economic shifts brought about by the engagement economy. And any conversation about the impact of the engagement economy has to factor in the concept of creative destruction and the notion of a “Warhol Economy.”

2013 will be about finding the signs that will forever change us by what type of future “we” can collectively imagine – to “creatively destruct” the former order of things in favor of new templates based on accelerated and concentrated ways of sharing and communicating. The engagement economy has expedited this transformation and, thanks to the access it provides emerging voting blocs like Latinos, for example, has irrevocably altered the volume with which these populations can communicate. It has also eased the barriers to forming coalitions and clustering core constituencies around specific ideologies.

These new mediums of connection, collaboration, communication and engagement will be driven by a level of informed insight never before seen that will translate into more real, palpable and meaningful experiences. And, like the consumer sectors, data will drive this transformation in the political sector. As noted in the Washington Post about a week after the election, the detailed repository of voter information the Obama machine compiled over this past election cycle has set the standard for political data collection for elections to come. To the Democrats in particular, but relevant to both parties, this is a highly coveted artifact that not only provides a blueprint for mid-term campaigning in 2014 but sets the gold standard for looking at data in new and interesting ways that allow for maximum message distribution alongside hyper-focused targeting, tailored for clusters of voters that are tied geographically, ideologically and, perhaps more important, economically.

*Courtesy of Washington Post

These clusters will grow in importance with regard to political outcomes, much in the same way Detroit served as the catalyst for the auto industry and Andy Warhol’s “Factory” served as the focal point for most of the east coast art, music and film scene in the late 1960’s. Projecting such clustered cultural movements onto commerce and culture is precisely what the Warhol Economy represents; a nexus of art, music, performance and the like that is considered the “culture industry.” Surely, if the larger definition of “culture industry” represents the expression of a society on many different levels of cultural significance, than political expression and the way we choose to govern ourselves and the interaction of those two variables should be included in any discussion of the America’s political future.

At the heart of this discussion is the way people interact and, more importantly, the way they choose to interact in the coming decades and a how that interaction will activate in the voting booth. Our guess is, given the ease with which people can now associate, share information, be part of meaningful clusters and drive change through the use of expedient communication and massive data accumulation, our political system will look more Orwell than Vonnegut in the very near future.

A Word on the New “ROI”

As every marketer declares, you can’t manage what you can’t measure. But for the majority of our careers, that measurement has always been a function of the return on what is invested into the project or goal: sales leads, incoming calls, elevated brand awareness or reputation management. You tweaked the offer or the message, the medium or the call to action, to try to improve the ROI.

With today’s shift toward advanced digital communications, we have an unprecedented opportunity to hear directly from consumers about what they desire in a brand experience. The monumental impact that these insights can have on the bottom line has opened up a new industry of advanced reporting and analytics tools, a field that is expected to grow by 60 percent (The CMO Survey) over the next three years. Ultimately, it redirects the marketing conversation from “What have we gained from our activities?” to “What have we learned about our customers through these activities that will impact our future product and marketing efforts?” With an increased emphasis on uncovering insights as an impetus of better business results comes the following:

My Ears are Burning
Marketers will incorporate continuous listening tools and opportunities throughout all customer communications channels. These tools can include advanced options like Radian 6, Netbase or Nielsen BuzzMetrics to free options, like simple searching on Twitter. Real-time feedback on a product at the time it is being consumed will also be encouraged, as will greater conversation mining on Facebook and community forums.

Refocused Focus Groups
Marketers no longer need to hide behind focus group mirrors. In addition to leveraging social media channels, there are a bevy of new services capturing valuable in-person feedback. As an example, a well-known auction and appraisal company has evolved its business model by soliciting products from companies wishing to expand into Asia. The products are sold at a traditional auction but customer feedback is captured and provided to the seller, including first impressions of the product, features, packaging and overall satisfaction or suggestions for an improved brand experience.

Product Launches Will Look Much Different
There will be significant reliance on business intelligence offerings to shape product roadmaps, particularly off-the-shelf products that can be easily tailored for vertical market nuances. Furthermore, organizations will increasingly evolve traditional product development cycles to allow more fluidity and the opportunity for teams to create additional ‘pilots’ prior to subjecting them to traditional ROI exercises.

No Analysis Paralysis Allowed
While these new analytics allow for a more systematic approach, remaining nimble is key. On average, 84 percent of a brand’s Facebook fans are current or former customers. If a national hotel chain, for example, uncovered that the majority of its Facebook fans were women talking about family friendly vacations, a potential course of action would be to create a rotating spotlight on properties that included Kids Camps, regardless of whether that was a callout on other direct marketing campaigns.

Better customer insights alter the way in which marketers conceptualize their efforts. By putting the emphasis on insights rather than marketing activities, we become more in tune with customer needs and produce the kinds of offerings that they actually want, thereby achieving revenue and retention goals.

Creative Destruction Redifines ROI (And the C-Suite)

Bigger is no longer better (the age of the microbrand is here to stay) and the very tenets of the Warhol economy, the nexus of creative industries like fashion, art and music, are what will unquestioningly continue to propel us forward. Our world has the opportunity to soar to new heights, and the organizations and leaders who continue to ascend know that to do so, we must creatively destroy all the things that have failed us, to begin again and thrive anew.

The new age of creative destruction will most definitely spread its wings in 2013, and with that will come the resounding arrival of a new creative revolution. One which will pay homage to the past, while using the legacy of yesterday to not mourn what was lost, but celebrate the seeds of growth that will allow us to ideologically transform and again take flight.

The success of this new period will all be contingent upon a “ROI” (return on insights) movement that will take shape in 2013 as the era of big data becomes more prevalent. As a result, the way we connect, collaborate, communicate and engage will be driven by a level of informed insight never before seen that will translate into more real, palpable and meaningful experiences. As a result the C-suite will need to mirror these shifts with tweaks to executive roles including the arrival of new master leaders proficient in different areas (CDO/CCO, and CEO, “Chief Engagement Officer”).

2013 will largely be about finding the signs that will lead us to the doors of tomorrow. The ones that won’t only transform us in how we live, work and play, but the ones that will forever change us in what not just we as individuals can experience, but in what type of future “we” (and the brands that drive us) can collectively create and procure.